2020's Top Five Most Overvalued Fantasy Players
While quarantine goes on with no live sports, fantasy football has begun to consume us all. As many have begun fantasy leagues two months early, here are the top five most overvalued fantasy players for the 2020 season.
Number Five: Raheem Mostert
As a die hard 49ers fan, this one hurts. After finishing as RB24 in 2019, many expect Mostert to improve on his 2019 campaign, and I can't buy into the hype. While Mostert finished the season with 772 rushing yards with 8 touchdowns (seven of those TD’s came within the last six weeks), there will be many hurdles that the fifth year back will face.
One of the biggest issues is Kyle Shanahan’s RB by committee that ran throughout the 2019 season. On any given game, most carries could either go to Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, or Raheem Mostert as there was no real lead back. Even with Mostert’s successful finish to the season and traumatizing the Packers defense in the NFC championship, a RB committee is bound to happen again in 2020.
Jerick McKinnon will finally make his 49ers debut after a torn ACL sidelined him for over two seasons, taking away many pass catching opportunities for Mostert. Tevin Coleman will still continue to get his reps as he is the most experienced player in Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme, as consistent lead back carries for Mostert will be a genuine challenge in 2020.
As Mostert’s current ADP is 43.1, which is ahead of Mark Ingram and Sony Michel I wouldn't take Mostert within the first four rounds, period. As Mostert will have a few weeks where he will finish as a high RB2, don't be fooled by Mostert’s finish to last season to justify drafting him in the top 50.
Number Four: Adam Thielen
Yes, this sounds weird to say. Adam Thielen is one of the biggest boom or busts for the 2020 fantasy season, and I'm strongly predicting the latter. As the de facto top receiver for the Vikings after the Stefon Diggs trade, it will force Thielen to play on the outside, and not as a slot receiver.
When matched up against elite cornerbacks in 2019 such as Darius Slay, Casey Hayward, Prince Amukamara, and Jaire Alexander, Thielen’s fantasy numbers were putrid. Through these four matchups, Thielen wouldn't end up finishing as a top 35 fantasy receiver once, racking in only 11 receptions for 133 yards and one touchdown, making it tough to imagine a successful 2020 season for the six-year veteran.
While top corners will cover Thielen instead of Diggs this season, it seems realistic that rookie receiver Justin Jefferson can outperform Thielen in fantasy scoring. As of right now, Adam Thielen’s fantasy ADP is at 29.1, ahead of Amari Cooper and JuJu Smith Schuster. With no sign that Thielen can handle being covered by top corners in the league, Thielen will be a tough sell as a top 20 fantasy receiver for 2020.
Number Three: Rob Gronkowski
Let's make it clear; Rob Gronkowski is nowhere near his prime. After a one year retirement and receiving a bouquet of flowers with a note saying “I need you so I can be successful”, Gronk has joined forces once again with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. While all 12-year-olds will pick Gronk early on as a top tight end, there are a few reasons you should be hesitant to get Gronk so quickly.
The biggest concern is simple - the man can't stay healthy all season. Rob Gronkowski has had many issues staying healthy towards the end of his tenure in New England. While this was the major reason for his retirement, Gronkowski isn't a lock to play over 12 games this season. Even if he does and the Bucs are as successful as many believe they will be, expect Gronk to rest up for the playoffs in crucial fantasy playoff weeks for the actual NFL playoffs.
Another red flag for Gronk’s fantasy value is the offensive weapons Tom Brady has to please. With having two top 10 receivers in the NFL with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Gronk’s target shares will be limited to just red zone opportunities. While Gronkowski’s red zone targets may provide some fantasy value, this is a major red flag for PPR leagues when comparing his potential to Tyler Higbee and Mike Gesicki.
As of right now, Gronk is being drafted as TE6, ahead of Evan Engram and Hunter Henry. While many will remember Gronk for being the greatest tight end in the NFL, things may definitely change in 2020. While Gronkowski may show flashes of his former self throughout the season, the rewards of drafting Gronk does not outweigh the risk of doing so.
Number Two: Kyler Murray
Baby Kyler Murray had a solid rookie campaign, but let's not believe he will be a top three fantasy quarterback this year. Adding a generational receiver in DeAndre Hopkins is always a massive upgrade for an air-raid offense, but there are still major holes in the Cardinals O-Line that need to be solved first.
In 2019, the Cardinals offensive line gave up 47 sacks, which is a red flag considering Kyler Murray is a mobile quarterback. While the Cardinals offensive line ranked 22nd overall in the NFL, not signing a single lineman this offseason is a bold move to make to protect their franchise quarterback.
With an offensive line that hasn't proved to be effective, this takes a massive hit on Murray’s decision making. According to player profile, Murray ranked 19th among all QB’s in Danger Plays, due to being forced into quick decisions as his offensive line could not contain any pressure, especially when playing the 49ers twice that season.
As of right now, Kyler Murray is being drafted as QB #3 ahead of divisional rival, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. While Murray possesses the talent to become a top three fantasy quarterback, there is no need to draft him as one already. There are safer options that have proven to produce top fantasy QB numbers, making Murray a massive gamble at his current value.
Number One: Chris Carson
It seems weird to say this about a top 15 running back, but there's just too many red flags for Chris Carson this season. After finishing fifth in the NFL in rushing yards and finishing as RB12, 2020 may be a season of regression for a few reasons.
A main issue with Carson’s value being so high is his hip. After suffering a season ending hip injury, there have been many reports saying Carson will miss most of training camp, making it tough for him to get back on track. Although Carson is one of the more talented backs in the league, rehabbing from a hip injury is not a simple thing to quickly overcome.
While Carson’s hip may take a toll on his production, the recent signing of Carlos Hyde may put another wrench into it. Carlos Hyde finished the 2019 season with a career high in rushing yards, surpassing 1,000 yards in Houston. While the Seahawks were also interested in bringing in Devonta Freeman, this is a red flag for the Seahawks preparing to play without Carson to start off the year. With the possible thought Carson will miss the entire training camp and preseason, almost making him a lock to be a mid to lower RB2 for 2020.
As of right now, Carson’s ADP is at 34.9, ahead of healthy running backs such as James Conner and Mark Ingram. While Carson had an amazing 2019 fantasy season, not having a training camp to prepare and more competition in the backfield is not a recipe for fantasy success by any means. While some will try to say Carson is a top 12 fantasy back, there is no doubt in my mind Chris Carson is bound to have a massive regression if he plays in 2020.