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A Deeper Look Into Snap Rates (Part 2)

Hello everyone, Coach Craig back at it again! Sorry for the short hiatus. In today's article I want to do a follow-up looking further into snap rates since Week 2. I will be going over the players we discussed in my first article as well as some new players.

Crowded Backfields:

Once again I will be looking at the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions and Tampa Buccaneers backfields. I will also be monitoring the Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs backfields going forward. I plan on going in to more detail over those 3 in the coming weeks.

Baltimore Ravens:


Player Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Mark Ingram 36% 42% 32% 25% 30% 12%

JK Dobbins 39% 31% 43% 37% 29% 41%

Gus Edwards 25% 31% 23% 39% 40% 44%


I left my last article by saying there appears to be 20-22 carries available for the RB position. So far this appears to be true. Through 6 games the Ravens are averaging 20.5 RB carries per game. This is down slightly from the 24.5 RB carries per game in 2019. What makes this even more interesting is that Lamar Jackson is actually running the ball about 3 less times a game.


So far no one has been able to emerge from this RB group. However, that could change with Mark Ingram's current ankle injury. All 3 of these RBs should be rostered as bench stashes moving forward.


Detroit Lions


Player Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Adrian Peterson 31% 25% 60% 44% BYE 35%

D'Andre Swift 44% 34% 9% 38% BYE 38%

Kerryon Johnson 26% 32% 30% 18% BYE 22%


I'll be honest, I'm still not sure what head coach Matt Patricia and company are doing with this backfield. My best guess is that it will turn into more of a 1A and 1B situation moving forward between Adrian Peterson and D'Andre Swift. Both players could be game script dependent. Consider Peterson a low end RB2/FLEX in standard scoring formats and Swift a low end RB2/FLEX in PPR scoring formats. Kerryon Johnson can be left on waivers. It will be interesting to see if they try to get Swift more involved in the coming weeks.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers:


Player Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Ronald Jones 47% 34% 51% 64% 69% 57%

Leonard Fournette 13% 43% 37% DNP 1% DNP

LeSean McCoy 36% 18% 16% 7% DNP 29%

Ke'Shawn Vaughn DNP DNP DNP 25% 25% 15%


Good news here! Ronald Jones has established himself as the lead back for Tampa. It is also important to keep in mind that Leonard Fournette has essentially been inactive the past 3 games. However, Jones has done everything that has been asked of him. That includes 3 straight 100+ yard games. Look for LeSean McCoy or Ke'Shawn Vaughn to be the prototypical 3rd down back going forward. Consider Jones a solid RB2 in all scoring formats. Fournette is a must own bench stash at this point in time. McCoy and Vaughn can be left on waivers.

Recap:

In this section I will do a recap of the players mentioned in my first article. I will note any changes and how I value them moving forward.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Joe Mixon 59% 50% 72% 83% 76% 53%


The good news here is that head coach Zac Taylor and company are finally letting Joe Mixon stay on the field. He had 6 receptions in both Weeks 4 and 5. His snap rate was down in Week 6 due to a foot injury, which will also cause him to miss Week 7. Consider Mixon a high end RB2 in all scoring formats moving forward.


Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Nyheim Hines 53% 12% 33% 35% 38% 33%


It appears things have stabilized for Nyheim Hines. Weeks 1 and 2 appear to be outliers as he has played between 33% and 38% of snaps the past 4 weeks. He is the pass catching back for this offense and will see his carries vary week to week. He is purely just a bench stash now for PPR scoring formats.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Mark Andrews 71% 58% 79% 65% 68% 51%


Mark Andrews snaps rates have been up and down so far in 2020. In my previous article, I mentioned Nick Boyle's blocking as a major reason for this. Andrews has been on the field more in games where the Ravens have had to throw the ball. Consider Andrews a solid TE1, who has a range out of outcomes week to week.


Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Sony Michel 30% 21% 38% IR IR IR


Honestly there isn't too much to say about Sony Michel. His snap rate was low in the 3 games that he played this season. He has been on IR the past 3 weeks with a quad injury. Damien Harris is also back, so do not expect a big role from Michel moving forward. He can be left on waivers at this point in time.


Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Anthony Miller 42% 40% 57% 69% 41% 67%


The concerns for Anthony Miller after the first 2 weeks have become reality. He is the clear WR3 in Chicago behind both Allen Robinson and rookie Darnell Mooney. Miller can be left on waivers.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Michael Pittman Jr. 53% 92% 58% IR IR IR


This was a sad story. Michael Pittman Jr. saw an increase in playing time in Weeks 2 and 3. However, in Week 3 he suffered an injury known as leg compartment syndrome. The Colts are optimistic that he could return in the next few weeks. I will be monitoring his progress closely. He can be left on waivers until we see him return and make an impact on the field.


Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Russell Gage 70% 83% 18% 67% 62% 64%


This is a case of another player leveling out much like Nyheim Hines earlier. Russell Gage has been between 62% and 70% most weeks. This is more in line with what I expected to see from him. It is also important to note that the 18% in Week 3 was due to him exiting with a concussion. Gage's targets have dipped since Week 2. He is purely a bench stash for PPR scoring formats.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Joshua Kelley 24% 52% 29% 57% 35% BYE


Talk about a rollercoaster of a ride for snap rates. Joshua Kelley has been the definition of up and down. His 29% in Week 3 was due to a fumble and the Chargers playing from behind. The Week 4 boost came from an injury to Austin Ekeler. While Week 5 saw Justin Jackson get more snaps due to the game script. Expect a split backfield between Jackson and him moving forward. Consider Kelley a RB3 or Bye week replacement until further notice.


Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Myles Gaskin 63% 65% 75% 65% 63% 70%


This might be the most straightforward recap of them all! Myles Gaskin has continued his dominance as the Miami Dolphins lead RB. He has even been seeing more goal line touches with Jordan Howard inactive the past 2 weeks. Consider Gaskin a safe RB2 in all scoring formats

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

CeeDee Lamb 82% 83% 60% 76% 55% 67%


Going into the season most of us knew that CeeDee Lamb was a special WR. Through the first 6 weeks he has seen 51 targets and a strong snap rate. Look for Lamb to continue his impressive start to his NFL career. Consider him a WR3 in all scoring formats and a must own in dynasty leagues!


Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Logan Thomas 74% 91% 85% 93% 87% 86%


Arguably the most interesting player on this list. Logan Thomas is on the field almost all the time! He has seen 36 targets so far this season with only 17 catches for 148 yards. While his fantasy stats may be lacking there is still room for improvement, especially if he is given more consistent QB play. Thomas is a high end TE2 for now, but he has the potential to finish as a low end TE1.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Darnell Mooney 32% 60% 62% 74% 65% 67%


There is a new WR2 in Chicago and his name is Darnell Mooney! His fantasy stats are not the greatest right now. He still appears to be working on building chemistry with Nick Foles. Mooney can be left on waivers in redraft leagues, but he is definitely someone to lookout for moving forward. He should be owned in all dynasty leagues.

New Players to be Concerned About:


Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Mike Gesicki 73% 55% 49% 63% 45% 66%


Talk about puzzling, there truly seems to be no rhyme or reason to Mike Gesicki's snap rates and production. Part of the variance may be due to his lack of blocking ability. He is better known as an athletic TE. He is a player that could benefit the most from the QB switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa. It is no secret that rookie QBs often look to the TE position as a safety valve. Consider Gesicki a high end TE2 with potential for more.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Scotty Miller 61% 69% 43% 53% 63% 35%


The primary loser of yesterday's Antonio Brown signing is most likely Scotty Miller. The second year WR out of Bowling Green has had quite the interesting season. In a sort of whack-a-mole fashion, Miller has avoided fantasy lineups while producing then failed to produce when fantasy managers gave him a chance. Something interesting to note is that he has been the 3rd WR in terms of snap rate for every game this season. That includes a game where Chris Godwin was out and another where both Godwin and Justin Watson were out. If Brown is able to play in Week 9, Miller should be dropped in all formats.

New Players Looking Upward:


Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Tee Higgins 22% 65% 79% 57% 81% 81%


I'm not sure anyone saw Tee Higgins making an impact this early. He was drafted as more of a replacement to AJ Green. However, he may be taking over that role sooner than expected. He is currently averaging over 7 targets a week which alone makes him fantasy relevant. Now add in his talent and the fact that he worked out with Joe Burrow prior to the draft. Consider Higgins a WR3/FLEX play in all scoring formats. He has potential for more if the Bengals decide to move on from AJ Green prior to the trade deadline.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Chase Claypool 30% 37% 76% BYE 69% 78%


It was only a matter of time before Mapletron bursted onto the scene. Chase Claypool gave us the best fantasy performance of a WR so far this year. Temper your expectations for him moving forward, as Diontae Johnson returns to the lineup in Week 7. Claypool should still be the WR3 in Pittsburgh. Consider him a weekly WR3/FLEX for fantasy with some boom/bust potential.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

Justin Jefferson 69% 54% 78% 77% 80% 89%


I will be the first to admit that I did not see Justin Jefferson making this big of an impact as a rookie. I love Jefferson the prospect and his long term value overall. Just like at LSU, he is showing us that we should never underestimate him. Consider Jefferson a WR3 going forward and a must own in dynasty.

In conclusion, I would like to say that these numbers are based on a 6 game sample size. With that being said, some of these numbers could change over the next few weeks. I will be doing another follow up article regarding this topic in about 2 weeks. At that time, I will recap any notable changes to the snap rates for the players mentioned in this article. I will also include some new players to be concerned about as well as players looking upward. Lastly, I will take a look into some other crowded backfields around the NFL.


I would love to hear your thoughts as well! Feel free to leave a comment on this article or reach out to me on Twitter @CoachCraigSport

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