Fantasy Football for Schmucks: Is Trubisky Really That Bad?
Updated: Aug 30, 2020
The Bears traded up to select Trubisky 2nd overall in the 2017 NFL draft. Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson both went after him. We can all agree this was an awful decision by Chicago management, but are we giving up on Trubisky to soon? Is there hope for the young quarterback yet, or is he on a downward spiral to becoming the next Blaine Gabbert?
Trubisky has the athletic profile and measurables of a solid NFL quarterback. He is tall enough at 6' 2" and a solid 222 lbs, having great speed with a weight adjusted speed score in the 86th percentile after running a 4.67 forty yard dash at the combine. Trubisky is quite agile too, scoring in the 84th percentile. His Wonderlic was a solid 25 which is exactly what Roethlisberger, Dak, and Baker scored. Plus his college QBR was 83.6 which places him in the 85th percentile. All of these numbers (provided by the great people over at PFF) make for a valuable QB prospect entering the draft!
Mitch wasn't a starter until his final year at UNC. He decided to never transfer out and fought for the starting job year in and year out. When he was handed over the reigns to the offense he did not disappoint! In 2016 he completed 304 of his 447 attempts (68%) for 3,748 yards, 30 TDs, and only 6 INTs. He then added 93 rushing attempts for 308 yards and 5 TDs. He showed some rushing upside while proving to be a reliable decision maker. This is obviously what enticed the Chicago Bears.
Next Stop, the NFL
The 2017 NFL draft, at the time, was thought to lack top tier QB talent. Many sites ranked Trubisky as head of the class with Mahomes, Watson, and Kizer following behind him in different orders depending on which site. These sites included PFF, NFL.com, and Fox Sports. However Trubisky was not leaps and bounds ahead of Mahomes and Watson, shown by not being the consensus top QB ranked lower by the likes of Sports Illustrated and others.
This made the Bears decision to give up the 3rd pick, 67th pick, and 111th pick in the draft, plus a 2018 3rd to trade up to the 2nd overall pick questionable at best. What makes it worse is not many suspected the 49ers would pick Trubisky at the number 2 pick in the draft, and even if they did Watson or Mahomes would still be left ready for them to scoop them up. San Fran absolutely fleeced the Bears on this deal! With all that being said Chicago now had their presumed franchise QB.
Things started off shaky for Mitch, playing in 12 games completing 59 percent of his pass attempts for a 7 to 7 TD to INT ratio. This can be expected from a young QB with only one starting college season under his belt. The next season he really turned things around though! Trubisky put together a breakout sophomore season throwing for 3,223 yards, 24 TDs, and 12 INTs on 434 attempts completing 289 of them for an eerie 66.6% completion percentage. He even tacked on 421 yards and 3 TDs on 68 rushing attempts netting 6.2 ypc. He was hard to bring down as well with 115 of said yards coming after contact. He earned himself a Pro Bowl nod and brought the Monsters of Midtown to the playoffs on the back of an 11-3 record! After this impressive season, the Bears looked to be in prime position to make another run at the playoffs with their emerging star at QB!
Unfortunately Mitch took a step back in his third year. Basically every stat fell to some degree. He played in 15 games (1 more than the previous season) only completing 63.2 percent of his 516 passes (326) for 3,138 yards and 17 TDs to 10 INTs with 48 rush attempts for 193 yards and 2 TDs. Some of this can be attributed to his less than stellar offensive line play. If we are going to fault Trubisky for these numbers maybe we should look at Josh Allen's 2019 completion percentage (58.8%), passing yards (3,089), and his 20 TDs to 10 INTs. These are very similar numbers and people are talking him up as a top 10 dynasty QB! Yes he did rush for more yards, 109 att for 510 yds and 9TDs, but Mitch showed he has the ability to be used the same way! Both could be good for fantasy managers.
From the Film
Mitch looked confused at times during the season and was not able to progress through his reads at times. Before we put it all on Trubisky you can see he is scared for his life half of the game. The offensive line was a complete dumpster fire. They did not seem to know their assignments in the running or passing game.
They ranked as PFFs 25th O-line with an average time to pressure allowed of 2.37 seconds which was the 4th worst in the league. As much as Trubisky looked bad, there were moments where he showed flashes. You can tell the kid has a solid arm and he can really grip and rip the ball. He also was still able to move outside of the pocket and, if used more in the running game, could really be a factor in 2020. Another reason to not place all of the blame on Trubisky is you can tell the play calling was subpar on film. Nagy even admitted that he thought he could have done a better job calling plays in 2019. There was a lot of bad but also a fair share of good that Trubisky put on the field in the 2019 season.
What to do in Fantasy
If you are in a one QB league I would stay far far away from Trubisky. He should only be rostered in redraft if it is superflex and he is your QB 3. It would be easy to do this as he is going undrafted in many drafts, while Foles goes in the 14th, and you have a possible starting QB with one of your last picks. Where I am mostly interested in Trubisky is in a dynasty superflex format. He can be had for pennies. Per The Undroppables his ADP in this format is 195 overall, 45 picks after Nick Foles. I even found a few dynasty trades to show just how cheap he is on DLF: Trubisky for Asiasi and a 21 2nd, Trubisky for Dalton, a 21 3rd, and a 22 3rd; and Trubisky for Pollard. I even traded just a 22 2nd for him myself!
After digging into Trubisky I came out higher on him than I thought I would be. He has shown promise and could possibly have a decent NFL future. The Bears are better off if Mitch wins the job, and your dynasty team would be as well. You spend a lower draft pick, get the younger player, and if he wins the job he can be their future at QB. Foles has no chance to be anything more than a bridge QB for Chicago. If Mitch comes out on top, Chicago has Fantasy Pros easiest schedule for a QB which could help him further develop. I do not think Trubisky has the upside Chicago thought he did when they drafted him 2nd overall, but he could be an average to slightly above average QB if he takes another step next year!