Week 10 Edition
Written By Bo McBrayer@Bo_McBigTime
I’m truly sorry for missing PICANTakes last weekend. I survived another trip around the sun without giving my wife of nine years (!) a good enough reason to act on her underlying homicidal rage toward me. We had a lovely weekend rave up in the mountains at my family’s cabin, in the style of Burning Man. Me, being the country boy wild child that I am, built a fire in the wood stove so hot that we needed to open the doors and windows (it was 16 degrees and snowing outside). I guess you can say I do most things in life with a good amount of heat.
I am sort of glad I didn’t have to recap my Week 8 takes last week, as they were the worst I have done this season. None of them were remotely close, so I’m on to Cincinnati and looking forward to drumming up some new ones today for Week 10. There is a faint murmur from the loyal readers that call for more spice in my predictions and I don’t want to let them down. I will still use plausible, data-driven factors to create these takes, but brace yourselves, we’re throwing some big logs on this fire.
The 49ers Will Hold the Saints Under 350 yards and Beat Them
I hate the 49ers with a fiery passion, so this one is really tough to stomach. Very simple here, I expect a letdown game from New Orleans after an eerily easy blowout win over the Bucs. Last week was the first time the Saints defense looked remotely strong, but on tape, it simply looked like Tampa Bay was extremely flat out of the gate and the game was out of hand before halftime. San Francisco is also a tad healthier this week, with Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne returning from the COVID list to give Nick Mullens more options in the passing game. The 49ers defense has actually been decent, only getting lit up by Davante Adams, who seems to have left his mark on every defense this season. I picture a lower scoring game here, with ball control a major tipping point. New Orleans has given up some big plays in the passing game all season, especially if the quarterback is leaving the pocket. Mullens is mistake prone, which gives me pause, but he is not the type of player who is afraid of pushing the ball down the field. If I were to predict the final score, I would say it will be 49ers 24-21.
Joe Burrow Will Pass for 300 Yards and the Bengals Will End the Steelers Undefeated Streak.
Pittsburgh is enjoying a great season, behind a stingy defense and an explosive receiving corps. They also happen to be one of the best-coached teams in the league. With that eighth win, that locks up a 14th consecutive non-losing season for Mike Tomlin. Burrow’s mobility and trio of talented receivers might be the story in this game. Pittsburgh has been vulnerable to downfield passes when their dominant pass rush gets picked up or avoided. It is definitely possible that the combination of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd with Gio Bernard as a safety valve could break some big plays on the Steeler defense. Big Ben is banged up and James Conner is back to running soft again, so I have my doubts on whether the Steelers can put up a big point total, when they couldn’t even accomplish that against Dallas last week. Either way, this prediction might simply hinge on my lack of faith in Conner setting the tone in the running game and punishing Cincinnati’s poor run defense like he should on paper.
Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds Will Combine for 300 receiving yards, Jared Goff Will Pass for Over 400 yards, and the Rams Will Beat the Seahawks.
This one is a little mild, in my opinion, because the Seahawks have been historically bad against the wide receiver position. In order to spice it up, we went for this season’s first “Three-fer.” I need to hit all three to take a victory lap; and the numbers I think are attainable, but far-fetched. The Rams are designed to beat the Seahawks and Russell Wilson struggled last week with a Bills pass rush that is inferior to that of the Rams. I still believe there will be a great deal of points scored back and forth, which will help get to the lofty yardage totals I need here. If you’re playing DFS, a Goff stack with two of these receivers is easy money.
JD McKissic, Leonard Fournette, and Chase Edmonds Will All End Up as RB1s (Top-12 in PPR).
I love this type of take. I’m planting my flag in some of my favorite DFS values at the running back position. These are also guys that I have been somewhat forced to play with all the injuries at the position. McKissic is coming off 14 targets (!) last week, and we all know that Alex Smith is Captain Checkdown.He will be alongside a near lock of an RB1 in Antonio Gibson, but their roles are both well-defined against a pitiful Detroit defense. Fournette has outpaced Ronald Jones every week since returning from injury and faces a Panthers defense that has really struggled to slow down opposing backs. I also expect a renewed effort to establish the run by Tampa Bay, after only calling four running plays all game last week. Chase Edmonds is a smash this week, even if Kenyan Drake suits up (game-time decision). Buffalo’s linebackers have struggled in coverage all season and the Cardinals love to run a diverse route tree with Edmonds, plus a good amount of rushing work. The running back pool is shallow this week, so this prediction might hit, even without the benefit of a touchdown. Volume pays the bills here.