Podcastic Week 11 Start/ Sit
We are in week 11, and it has been a wild ride! This season has been a fun and challenging one to navigate, and our writing team is here to help! Let's get into these start/ sits!
QB: Jameis Winston
Jameis is back to eat his W's and has a great chance of actually getting a W for his team as well as your fantasy squad this week! He faces a porous Atlanta pass defense that surrenders the most fantasy points to QBs! They have been better since the Quinn firing as a team but have still given up over 300 yards passing in 3 out of their last 4 games. Winston can sling it and I expect him to rack up some fantasy points this week!
QB: Cam Newton
Cam has not been good this year, but he’s coming off a win over a good Ravens team in a rain storm. He should have some confidence as he also threw his first TD pass since week 3 and has built a rapport with Jakobi Meyers. In a dome against the worst rushing D in the league Cam is streamable.
QB: Jameis Winston (vs. ATL)
Drew Brees is expected to miss multiple weeks due to broken ribs and a punctured lung. Jameis Winston will be one of the most added players this week. Winston was one of the top Fantasy QBs last year. However, most people will remember the 30 INTs he threw and try to avoid starting him. While he may not be Drew Brees, he still has a chance to put up points. He faces an ideal matchup in Week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons. In fact, his next 3 games are against Atlanta, Denver and Atlanta again. He has the potential to be a top 12 QB for the next 3 weeks.
QB: Kirk Cousins (vs. Dallas), FantasyPros ECR QB21
I like Derek Carr a lot this week as well but the matchup with Dallas is too tempting (giving up close to 20 fantasy points per game to QBs, 9th highest in the league). Cousins has been on fire at home this year, with three consecutive 3 TD games (vs. Tennessee, Atlanta, and Detroit). The Vikings implied point total of 27.5 is the 6th highest for week 11. The concern is that they get a big lead and just ride Dalvin Cook, but hopefully Andy Dalton will return this week and help Dallas stay competitive.
RB: Damien Harris
Harris has taken over this backfield as the lead back. He is on a 16 game pace of 227 carries for 1256 yards. He has gone over 100 yards rushing in 3 out of his 6 games played. Harris is coming off of a 121 yard effort vs a tough Ravens D and gets a soft matchup vs the Texans. Even with Michel possibly back, expect Harris to lead this backfield and be a viable flex play!
RB: D'Andre Swift
Swift got his first start last week, played 73% of snaps and put up 149 total yards and a TD. He’s played the most snaps of any of the RBs in that backfield each of the last 5 weeks and actually has double digit fantasy points in 7 of 9 games this year. He has the opportunity now and a good matchup as Carolina gives up the 5th most points to RBs.
RB: Kalen Ballage (vs. NYJ)
Man 2020 is a weird year. If I had told you at the beginning of the season that I'd be recommending Kalen Ballage in Week 11 you would have called me crazy! He appears to be the lead back ,for the time being, in LA. He has clearly earned the trust of head coach Anthony Lynn. He draws a favorable matchup this week against the lowly Jets. Consider him a low end RB2 who should put up solid numbers in Week 11.
RB: Salvon Ahmed (at Denver) FantasyPros ECR RB34
If you were smart enough to pick up Ahmed last week (or lucky enough to get him on waivers this week), I’d plug him into the starting lineup. He was the clear workhorse back for Miami last week (21 carries, 84% of the rushing attempts) and that should continue even if Matt Breida comes back this week. Two things appear clear about this matchup: 1) Miami wants to run as much as they can to take pressure off Tua (averaging under 16 attempts/game since becoming a starter) and 2) the Denver offense is really struggling and putting the opposing offense in plenty of positive game script situations.
WR: Justin Jefferson
Jefferson is having a fantastic rookie season and is coming off a 10 target 8 reception for 135 yards game vs the vaunted Bears defense. This week he gets a much more favorable matchup facing what the Cowboys call a defense. I expect big things this week.
WR: Justin Jefferson
Jefferson is quickly becoming Cousins favorite target. Over the last 4 games he has more targets, receptions, and over twice as many yards as Adam Thielen. Against the Bears, who are 3rd in points allowed to WR, Jefferson had 8 catches for 135 yards. Now he gets a matchup on the other end of the spectrum as the Cowboys allow the second most points to WR.
WR: Jakobi Meyers (vs. HOU)
I was probably the biggest supporter of Jakobi Meyers heading into the season. He is clearly the WR1 in New England now. Even with N'Keal Harry returning, Meyers played on 98% of snaps compared to Harry's 60%. Meyers also saw 7 targets and Harry had 0. I enjoyed seeing his nicely thrown TD pass to Rex Burkhead. If you didn't already know, Meyers was a pretty good High School QB before converting to WR at NC State. He clearly has earned the trust of Cam Newton. Meyers is in for another big game against the lowly Texans defense. Consider Meyers a set it and forget it WR this week!
WR: Christian Kirk (at Seattle) FantasyPros ECR WR27
Kirk had his three-game TD streak snapped last week, but I am going right back to him. The Arizona/Seattle game has the highest projected point total for week 11 (56.5) so Vegas is expecting a shootout. Combine that with Seattle giving up the most fantasy points/game to WRs 35.6) and I want any piece of this game that I can get. It doesn’t hurt that Kirk already posted a 5/37/2 line against them in week 7.
TE: Logan Thomas
The TE position is a dumpster fire outside of Kelce. This makes it difficult to decide who to start and sit, but I would feel comfortable starting Thomas this week. Some surprising TE stats for Logan Thomas:
-3rd in snap rate
-1st in slot rate
-2nd in routes run
- 8th in air yards
- No game under 4 targets
Add onto this that he is playing the Bengals who give up the 2nd most fantasy points to the position, and he makes for a good streamer this week!
TE: Logan Thomas (vs. CIN)
Logan Thomas led all TEs in receiving yards in Week 10 with 66 yards. The TE position overall has been quite the mess this season. Thomas offers upside as he is always on the field, 100% and 99% of snap the past 2 weeks. Outside of Terry McLaurin and JD McKissic there is nothing else to throw to for Alex Smith. He faces a Bengals defense this week that has struggled against the TE position. Consider him a low end TE1 with upside for more if he scores a TD.
TE: Logan Thomas (vs. Cincinnati) FantasyPros ECR TE13
Thomas was one of my few hits from last week, so I am riding the hot hand. He had his second straight week with six targets and set a season-high with 66 receiving yards. He is also getting more downfield looks, with a 14+ YPC in three of his last four games. Now he gets a Bengals team that is very generous with TEs, giving up 10.9 points/game, second highest in the league. If he can add a TD, we might finally get the overall TE2 game I predicted last week.
QB: Derek Carr
Carr is the vanilla ice cream of the QB position this year. You aren't excited about it, but he gets the job done. However, he has failed to reach 15 fantasy points in 4 point per passing TD leagues in his last 3 outings. He faces a tough Chiefs D only allowing 17.6 fantasy points per game. I would look elsewhere this week unless you are in 2 QB or Superflex leagues.
QB: Tom Brady
The Tom Brady rollercoaster should continue this week. After a horrible 3 interception game against the Saints, Brady bounced back with a great 3 TD game against the Panthers. Now, Monday night he gets the Rams who held the high powered Seahawks and Russell Wilson in check. First in fantasy points allowed to QBs, the Rams are a challenging matchup for Brady.
QB: Tom Brady (vs. LAR)
Against above average defenses, Tom Brady has struggled this year. He has scored 24.46, 16.12 and 2.36 points vs the Saints and Bears (6 point per passing TD). The Rams have a very good defense of their own. They have the ability to match up well against Evans, Godwin and Brown with their own trio of Ramsey, Hill, and Williams. I would not be surprised to see this turn into a defensive game. Consider Brady a low end QB1/high end QB2 this week. There are a few streaming options that I would prefer over him.
QB: Matt Stafford (at Carolina) ECR QB12
It is a little unfair picking a QB who might not even play this week, but I like all the other QB1 matchups this week. Obviously, an injured thumb on a throwing hand is already enough of a reason to fade Stafford this week. But he’s also struggled recently on the road throwing for a combined 3 TDs over his last three games. And it’s not like he was facing a trio of strong passing defenses (Minnesota, Atlanta, Jacksonville).
RB: Todd Gurley
Gurley has scored a good amount of fantasy points this year, but that is mostly due to TDs. He is barely involved in the passing game and has only went over the century mark rushing one time this year. He faces a stout Saints run D, and I would avoid playing him or at least temper expectations.
RB: Todd Gurley
Over the last 4 games Gurley II is averaging only 2.6 yards a carry. He’s bailed fantasy managers out with 4 TDs over that span, but this week he gets the Saints who are 1st in points allowed to RBs. In New Orleans as underdogs, the Falcons could be pass heavy to try and keep up.
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. LV)
This may look like a good matchup on paper for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. However, this could be a trap play. Since Le'Veon Bell has joined the Chiefs, Edwards-Helaire has played on 53% of snaps or less. He also is averaging only 9 touches in those 3 games as well. Consider Edwards-Helaire a FLEX at best this week, who likely needs to score to make an impact.
RB: Aaron Jones (vs. Indianapolis) RB5
Other than his blowup week 2 game vs. Detroit (who allow the most points/game to RBs), Jones hasn’t cleared 71 rushing yards or 16 carries in any game. Fortunately, he is still used frequently in the passing game to help boost his total yards. But this week he is facing a Colts defense that still doesn’t seem to be getting much respect, despite allowing the 3rd lowest points/game to RBs (14.9). They are also playing at home this week where they have had some impressive performances, limiting Dalvin Cook to 63 rushing yards in week 2 and the Ravens to 110 team rushing yards in week 9.
WR: Mike Evans
Evans has continued his inconsistent production into this year. He also has to face Jalen Ramsey, who seems to be playing at an All Pro level this year. Brady has no need to force him the ball due to his array of weapons at his disposal. Evans is only averaging 6 targets per game this year and without a TD he will disappoint this week.
WR: Tee Higgins
Higgins has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers with 7 straight games of double digit fantasy points. This week though, he gets the league’s best D against the pass in the Washington Football Team. They’re also 2nd in points allowed to WRs. Washington will bring the heat on Joe Burrow, which could mean a long day for Higgins.
WR: DK Metcalf (vs. ARI)
Hold your horses! No, DK Metcalf is not the best WR in football despite all the online hype. He has been propped up by TDs (8) this season. The last time he faced the Cardinals he was held to just 2 catches and 28 yards. There is a chance Tyler Lockett doesn't play this week due to a knee sprain. This could cause Metcalf to see more double coverage. The Seahawks will have Carlos Hyde back and potentially Chris Carson this week as well. Expect them to lean on the run more in this game. Consider benching Metcalf this week if you have the ability to do so. No, I'm not saying to start guys like Willie Snead over him!
WR: Tyler Boyd (at Washington) ECR WR15
Normally I try to pick a WR inside the ECR top 12, but I honestly like all those matchups this week. So, I must go down the list a little and pick Boyd. He is still getting decent target volume (7+ targets in seven out of nine games this year) but his biggest games have been against clearly weak secondaries. The WFT may not be a great team, but they have shown to be a tough pass defense, holding opposing WRs to 17.2 points/game, 2nd lowest in the league.
TE: Noah Fant
Fant may be without Lock this week, and even if this is not the case, faces a Miami defense that has given up the 6th least fantasy points to TEs. They have played decent TEs as well including George Kittle, Tyler Higbee, and Hunter Henry. Fant could disappoint this week. Due to the lack of options at the TE position you may be forced to start Fant but lower your expectations.
TE: Noah Fant (vs. MIA)
Noah Fant has been a disappointment so far this year. He has been banged up at times, primarily an ankle injury. On the plus side he is seeing 6.6 targets per game. However, he has been held under 50 yards since Week 2. He also has been unable to find the end zone since Week 2 as well. The upside is very limited here in Week 11 against a good Dolphins defense. Drew Lock is also banged up and may even miss this game. Consider Fant a high end TE2 this week.
TE: Noah Fant (at Miami) ECR TE5
This is painful for me since I have been on the Fant bandwagon since the season started. But I am benching him this week if I have a better option. Fant is still getting a decent number of targets (7 last week) but this Denver offense looks like a mess right now. Drew Lock has admitted to being hurt but is going to try and play this week. It does not help that Fant’s YPC has dropped to near Jason Witten levels since his ankle injury (6 YPC last week). Miami has a good pass defense (4th lowest yards to TEs) and will look to run the ball heavily with a lead, which would limit whatever garbage time, catch up opportunities that Denver might have.