Podcastic Week 14 Start/ Sit
QB: Justin Herbert
Herbert has been excellent this season. Do not be deterred from starting him after his lackluster showing last week. He is primed for a big day against a Charmin soft Atlanta defense that is giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs this season. Expect a huge bounce back this week!
QB: Matthew Stafford (vs GB)
It looks like the Lions are going to "let Stafford cook" now that Matt Patricia has been fired. Stafford saw his highest air yards of the season in Week 13 (500+). Everyone knows the Packers are going to points up against this Lions defense. Expect Stafford to sling the rock early and often. Consider him a low end QB1 in Week 14 with top 5 upside!
QB: Matt Stafford (vs. Green Bay), ECR QB14
I had Stafford as my QB start of the week on Thanksgiving and he was a mild disappointment (295 yards but only 1 TD). But he rebounded in a big way vs. Chicago last week with over 400 yards and 3 TDs (and finished as the QB5 on the week). Green Bay is not an easy matchup by any means (8th fewest fantasy points to QBs), but Stafford is playing at home in a game with the highest over/under of the week. I will be shocked if he is not playing most of the game in catch-up mode.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben’s coming off a 2 TD 300 yard passing game against the Washington Football team. He now gets a much more beatable, through the air, Bills team that just gave up 316 yards passing and 3 TDs to Nick Mullens. Roethlisberger has over 50 pass attempts each of the last 2 games and if in a negative game script (Steelers are actually underdogs), he could be forced to throw a lot again.
RB: Jonathan Taylor
JT is breaking out right in front of our eyes. He has scored 15.4 and 22.5 PPR points in his past two games. He is coming off a great game vs Houston where he racked up 135 scrimmage yards with a TD reception. Expect him to keep his play at a high level this week against a weak Raiders run defense!
RB: Ty Johnson (vs SEA)
This one depends on the health of Frank Gore who suffered a concussion in Week 13. If Gore is unable to play, look for Ty Johnson to shoulder the load once again. He faces a Seahawks defense that allowed 135 yards to Wayne Gallman and 2 TDs to Alfred Morris last week. Consider Johnson a low end RB2/FLEX if Gore misses this week.
RB: Gio Bernard (vs. Dallas) ECR RB20
The excitement over Bernard getting the starting role in Cincy due to Mixon’s injury has worn off. After starting off with two top-10 RB finishes in weeks 7 and 8, he has fallen to RB3 levels in the next four games. But those were against four respectable run defenses (Pitt, WFT, NYG and Miami) and Dallas certainly does not fall in that category. The Cowboys have been absolutely run over in their last two games, giving up 3 TDs to Antonio Gibson and the WFT and then almost 300 yards rushing to the Ravens on Tuesday night.
RB: Jonathan Taylor
In the last 2 games he’s played, Taylor has led the Colts in RB snaps. He’s rushed for over 90 yards in both of those games and has 7 catches with 1 receiving touchdown in that time as well. He’s finally producing like fantasy managers had hoped, having his best fantasy game of the year last week. Now he plays the Raiders who give up the 4th most fantasy points to RBs and were shredded by Ty Johnson last week for over 100 yards.
WR: Corey Davis
We have waited a long time, and it is finally Corey Davis breakout SZN! He has surprisingly even outplayed A.J. Brown thus far this season. Davis is averaging 7 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 80.1 receiving yards per game with a 75% catch rate. Compare this to A.J. Brown who is averaging 7.2 targets, 4.4 receptions, and 72.5 receiving yards with a 61% catch rate. He is coming off a dominant performance against Cleveland where he racked up 11 catches on 12 targets for 182 yards and 2 TDs! He now gets a plus matchup against the Jags. Corey Davis is a smash start this week!
WR: Tim Patrick (vs CAR)
It is possible that Tim Patrick is the most underrated WR in all of fantasy football. He has scored double digit points in 7 out of the past 9 weeks (includes the Kendall Hinton game). He goes against a Panthers defense that has struggled against outside WRs in recent weeks. Look for Patrick to turn in another solid performance. Consider him a solid WR3 in Week 14.
WR: Chris Godwin (vs. Minnesota) ECR WR19 – Any fear about Antonio Brown hurting Godwin should have been eased by the 19 combined targets over the last two games (15 receptions). Godwin had the bye week to heal up, which included getting the pins removed from his broken finger. Now he gets a Vikings secondary that’s allowed the third most fantasy points to WRs. This could be one of those ceiling games that we have yet to see from him this year.
WR: Tyler Boyd
Boyd is coming off a game with only 1 catch but it went for 72 yards and a TD. He only played half the Miami game though after getting ejected at the end of the first half. In the previous 2 games before the Dolphins game he got 17 targets so the volume is still there even with backup QBs. Dallas doesn’t give up a lot of passing yards per game but does give up the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs.
TE: Hunter Henry
Along with a Herbert bounceback this week, I can see Henry bouncing back as well. They play a defense that is terrible at defending against TEs, and if we are being honest, defending anything at all. The Falcons give up the most fantasy points per game to the TE position and I see Henry as a mid tier TE1 this week.
TE: Cole Kmet (vs HOU)
The Bears transition at TE is complete. Cole Kmet has played more snaps than Jimmy Graham each of the past 3 games. Last week was his first breakout games as he turned 7 targets into 5 receptions for 37 yards and 1 TD. He faces a poor Texans defense in Week 14. Look for the Bears to get him involved once again. Consider Kmet a stream worthy TE this week and someone who could have value moving forward.
TE: Hayden Hurst (vs. LA Chargers) ECR TE14
Recency bias is obviously very strong in the TE world. The last three weeks have not been good for Hurst, but they should not overshadow the fact hat he has six TE1 finishes this year, including four straight from weeks 6-9. The Chargers are tied for the second most TD passes allowed to TEs this year, which is usually the key for a TE1 week.
QB: Derek Carr
Derek Carr exploded last week against a terrible Jets defense, putting up 381 yards and 3 TDs. Don't let this fool you into starting him. He gets a very tough matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that gives up the 3rd least fantasy points to QBs as well as TEs and I'm sure they will look to shut down his favorite target Darren Waller. If they can do this, his only reliable option in the passing game is Nelson Agholar. Look for a different streaming option this week.
QB: Kyler Murray (vs NYG)
I will start off by saying that I typically do not like writing about the same player 2 weeks in a row. However, a lot of what I wrote about Kyler Murray last week still applies. As long as his rushing upside is limited he will be a sit for me. He faces a surging Giants defense that held Russell Wilson to just 17 fantasy points (in 6 pt passing TD). Look for the Giants to slow down the tempo of this game and limit the number of opportunities for Murray and the Cardinal offense. There are plenty of streaming QBs available this week to choose from over Murray.
QB: Josh Allen (vs. Pittsburgh) ECR QB9
It is tough to fade a QB as hot as Allen, who has three top-four QB finishes in the last four games. But this is all about playing the matchup. Pittsburgh is allowing the fewest fantasy points to QBs and has yet to give up a 300-yard passing game this year.
QB: Baker Mayfield
Mayfield’s playing well right now but played 2 beatable teams in the Jags and Titans in his previous 2. Now he gets the Ravens D which is much more capable than the previously mentioned teams. Prior to these last 2 games, Mayfield had a 3 game stretch where he threw 0 TDs and failed to reach double digit fantasy points in all of them. Mayfield had a rough outing in his 1st game against the Ravens as well so temper your expectations.
RB: Miles Sanders
I may just need to write the words "Doug Pederson" here, but I will give you some more reasoning. Sanders has a really tough matchup against what is arguably the best defense in the league at this moment. The Saints give up the least fantasy points per game to RBs (11.2). He has put up a total of 17.4 PPR fantasy points in his last three weeks COMBINED! I feel comfortable sitting Sanders unless you have no better options. If that is the case I would say temper your expectations, but I am sure they are not very high at this point anyway.
RB: Kareem Hunt (vs BAL)
This one may come as a bit of a surprise to some people. However, over the past 5 games Kareem Hunt has only scored double digit points once. He also goes against a tough matchup in Baltimore this week. He could have some opportunity if they get behind early, but he has 3 or fewer receptions in every game since Week 1. Consider Hunt more of a FLEX option this week.
RB: Austin Ekeler (vs. Atlanta) ECR RB6
The Falcons might be the sneakiest good run defense in the league, allowing the fourth lowest fantasy points to RBs (behind only Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and New Orleans). Atlanta is more vulnerable to RBs in the passing game so there’s probably good chance that Ekeler continues to do his damage that way. But if that is the case, you must hope he finds more success than then last week where he was only able to turn 9 targets into 4 catches and 32 yards.
RB: Miles Sanders
Things just continue to get worse for Sanders and the Eagles. Carson Wentz has now been benched for rookie Jalen Hurts. Sanders has failed to reach double digit fantasy points in his last 3 games. Sanders hasn’t scored since week 5 and now plays the Saints who allow the least amount of fantasy points to RBs. Sanders has been a disappointment and this week should be more of the same.
WR: Devante Parker
Parker has not been the picture of consistency this year. He has failed to hit double digit fantasy points in 5 games. He is coming off a down game against a bad Bengals D and now faces a Chiefs D allowing the 4th least fantasy points per game to WRs. Parker is no more than a flex play this week.
WR: DJ Chark (vs TEN)
Some of this may be out of spite for having to start him myself last week. However, DJ Chark has only scored double digit points once in his last 5 games. It is hard to trust him this week in what could be a very good matchup against the Titans. He is the clear definition of a boom/bust WR3 in Week 14.
WR: Allen Robinson (vs Houston) ECR WR8
A-Rob is one of the safest WRs you can play, with a consistent floor around the 75 yards level. But he is normally not getting you the WR1 weeks unless gets in the end zone, which he has only done in four games this year. I am not worried about Houston’s pass defense. I am just worried that their run defense is so bad (2nd most fantasy points to RBs) that Chicago will have so much success with that and will not need to pass the ball often.
WR: Devante Parker
Parker has been somewhat hit or miss this year. He’s coming off a subpar game against the Bengals and now gets a top 5 defense against WRs in the Chiefs. We’ll see how legit Tua and the 8-4 Dolphins are this week against the defending champs. I’m expecting another subpar game for Parker.
TE: Gerald Everett/ Tyler Higbee
Coming into the season there was alot of hype for Higbee. I bought in as well but he has not panned out so far this year. Everett is also very hit or miss. They get a tough matchup this week against the Pats, and barring injury, neither of these two are weekly starters. Leave them comfortably on your bench.
TE: Dallas Goedert (vs NO)
It was only a matter of time before Zach Ertz returned to crash Dallas Goedert's party. In Week 13 Ertz played on 44% of snaps and saw 4 targets. Goedert played on 84% of snaps and saw 7 targets. Expect Ertz to be on the field more often this week. Do not be surprised if the targets are more even between the two going forward. Add in a new starting QB in Jalen Hurts and a tough matchup against the Saints. Sounds like the perfect recipe to sit Goedert this week. Consider him a high end TE2 who could finish as a TE1 if he scores.
TE: Mike Gesicki (vs. Kansas City) ECR TE7
When Gesicki hits, he can hit big (three top 5 TE weeks). He is coming in on a hot streak (9/88/1 vs. Cincinnati) but he’s very volatile (9 weeks as the TE13 or lower). Every time you seem to trust him again, he will let you down. KC is not a matchup to fear but it is not one to attack either for TEs. If you are a heavy underdog in your playoffs, maybe give him a shot. But there are safer options available.